This is where you manually (or automatically) record every bet. Label columns A through K as follows:
| Column | Name | Description | | --- | --- | --- | | A | Date | Date of the match | | B | League | Süper Lig, Premier League, etc. | | C | Home Team | | | D | Away Team | | | E | Bet Type | MS (Match Result), Ü/İ (Over/Under), KG (Both to Score), Handikap | | F | Selection | e.g., "1" (Home Win), "Ü 2.5" | | G | Odds (Decimal) | The multiplier at the time of the bet | | H | Stake (TL) | Amount wagered | | I | Result | Win, Lose, or Push (refund) | | J | Payout | If Win: Stake * Odds; If Lose: 0 | | K | Profit/Loss | Payout minus Stake |
Exclusive Tip: Use Data Validation (Data > Data Validation) on columns E, F, and I. Create dropdown lists so you never mistype "Win" as "Won." excel iddaa programi yapma exclusive
Before using real money, run a Monte Carlo simulation (Excel's Data Table is perfect for this). Simulate 1,000 bets based on your historical return rate. If the simulation shows a positive expected value after 500 bets, your model is robust. If not, return to the TeamsDB and refine your power ratings.
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No exclusive betting program is complete without a staking plan. In the BankrollMgt sheet:
Using the Kelly Criterion formula to calculate optimal stake: Güvenlik:
Kelly % = (p * (b - 1) - (1 - p)) / (b - 1)
Where:
In Excel (assuming Your_Probability is in Dashboard cell D10 and Odds are in D4):
= (D10 * (D4 - 1) - (1 - D10)) / (D4 - 1)
Multiply the result by your Current Bankroll to get the "Kelly Stake." For safety, most professionals use Fractional Kelly (25%) to reduce volatility.